The level of intelligence that artificial intelligence (AI) has so far demonstrated has shocked most observers. AI seems to be able to answer any questions we ask and write better essays than most people today can ever write.

This sensation has caused many to think whether human intelligence may soon be rendered obsolete. Some reactions are outright extreme, such as “we are all going to die by 2030.”

What is the nature of “machine intelligence”? How is it different from “human intelligence”?

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Investors are suddenly fixated on “personal AI agents.” They are wondering: Are personal AI agents going to replace all apps (or at least replace travel apps)? Are they going to collapse all software into a single user interface (or at least eliminate many single-purpose apps)?

On social media, posts abound about using personal AI agents to accomplish varying tasks: cancel subscriptions, negotiate bills, book trips, reserve restaurant tables, purchase fancy items, arrange an entire wedding… The list goes on.

Having used various personal AI agents like Muse, Instinct, and Dot, I have become increasingly convinced that what we think we are seeing—those use cases on social media, those expectations we have, those grand visions that feel so real to us—many of these are probably not enduring, but a mirage.

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Earlier this year, I wrote an article on agentic commerce (link), arguing that agentic commerce might not be as big a deal as some were saying. In the ensuing few months, agentic commerce and its related discussion waned. Few signs of adoptions were observed.

Since August, Instinct (a personal AI agent app developed by a startup) and Muse (a personal AI agent app developed by Meta) have attracted the attention of both consumers and investors. On the consumer end, as of today, Muse is the No.1 most downloaded app across both Apple and Android. On the investor end, investors sold consumer-related stocks, in fear of the “disintermediation” risk—consumers might ditch existing e-commerce and food delivery apps and order via personal AI agent apps going forward.

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I used to work in the software industry. For a period of time, I held this view: Over the long run, the American B2B software industry might wither away.

My old reasoning was as follows: The fundamental value of B2B software comes from the fact that software engineers are expensive in the U.S. That means client companies cannot easily afford to build software in-house (attracting and maintaining software talent is costly) and therefore, they buy from vendors instead. In China, however, an abundant supply of high-skill and low-cost labor means something quite the opposite—with inexpensive software coders, Chinese companies tend to build software in house. Therefore, as we can observe, China’s B2B software industry is nowhere near as successful as the country’s consumer internet industry or the U.S. software industry. So, I thought my reasoning had legs.

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“Agentic Commerce” is in fashion. The media talks about it. Investors are mesmerized by it.

Like many new concepts, “Agentic Commerce” has a definition that is a bit fluid. It can be roughly defined as a way of online shopping where AI agents autonomously shop on behalf of a human consumer. The AI agents can interpret human intent, discover product options, optimize for constraints (prices, features, delivery speed) and complete transactions.

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