Instacart, Buyk, and Fridge No More

Jackson Zhu2 Comments

[This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]

I want to write this piece to provide an update to my February 11 post, titled Instant Delivery: Challenges That Cannot Be Overcome. Since that post, several events have transpired, very much in the direction that I predicted.

First, at least two Instant Delivery companies have since folded or near-folded. On March 4, Buyk, an Instant Delivery company operating in New York and Chicago, furloughed ~98% of its employees (source link). Its CEO was quoted saying: “we find funds, we find a buyer or we have to liquidate” (source link).

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Why Did DoorDash’s Stock Surge?

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[I own DoorDash stocks. This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash is my largest position. In early November 2021, I completely liquidated my DoorDash holdings (see my earlier post). Since then, I have been accumulating DoorDash stocks, buying aggressively in very recent weeks. My cost basis is less than half of the price that I sold DoorDash last November. As I wrote in my year end summary for 2021 (link), “A low cost basis is the mathematical foundation for achieving a high IRR.” In my investing, I intend to achieve a high IRR. Therefore, a low cost basis matters.

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Instant Delivery: Challenges That Cannot Be Overcome

Jackson Zhu3 Comments

[This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]

Instant Delivery is in overdrive. Billions of VC money has been poured into this space since 2020. Unicorns are made, even with less than one year of business history. Some companies are aspiring for a valuation of $40B! As a reference, Uber is trading at ~$70B and DoorDash is at ~$35B.

Despite these dazzling valuation figures, I am increasingly convinced that Instant Delivery, and broadly speaking Grocery Delivery, most likely will NOT work in the U.S. Today’s valuation levels might later be seen as high-water marks, causing permanent capital losses to late coming investors.

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Why I am still Bullish on DoorDash

Jackson Zhu3 Comments

[I own DoorDash stocks. This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]

This is a follow-up piece to my previous post on DoorDash (Sep 2021, link here).

I liquidated my previous DoorDash position in early- and mid- November 2021. Since then, I have been buying DoorDash again.

Summary

DoorDash is the No.1 Food Delivery company in the U.S. Controlling over 50% of the U.S. Food Delivery market, DoorDash has the largest delivery network, the highest work density, and the lowest delivery cost. It is a powerful network that can solve a variety of use cases, ranging from 10-min delivery to 1-day delivery.

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Key Learnings from 2021

Jackson Zhu2 Comments

The Study of History Matters for Successful Investing

I truly believe it. I have heard, time and again, from the world’s top investors — the No.1 thing for investing is studying history. I am very lucky, because I have a passion for studying history.

Why is history important? It is because documented history is perhaps the only reliable source of knowledge for developing an accurate understanding of the present. Said differently: If we want to understand what is going on now, we must understand history.

To me, studying history is a process of acquiring two things at once: 1) great ideas from great minds, and 2) materials for me to form new ideas. Both are key ingredients that feed my thinking process, allowing me to see what drives time forward — i.e., what makes the world move. From there, I can acquire a more accurate understanding of the present and I can structure a sensible framework to anticipate what might happen in the future.

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Overseas–Listed Chinese Stocks — A market bottom between now and early 2022(?)

Jackson ZhuLeave a comment

Update on KWEB: The prediction I made in July 2021, titled “Two Hours of Almost ‘Free’ Money,” has been proven to be correct by the market. KWEB reached $55 a share on September 7, 2021.

Full disclosure: I own KWEB the ETF. This article is NOT investment advice. Do your own due diligence.

I am increasingly convinced that the price collapse of overseas–listed Chinese stocks is probably coming to an end very soon. Take KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) as a market proxy for overseas–listed Chinese stocks. I believe the bottom is likely to appear between now and early 2022.

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