Previous post on February 3, 2022.
A Good Day
Instant Delivery: Challenges That Cannot Be Overcome
[This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]
Instant Delivery is in overdrive. Billions of VC money has been poured into this space since 2020. Unicorns are made, even with less than one year of business history. Some companies are aspiring for a valuation of $40B! As a reference, Uber is trading at ~$70B and DoorDash is at ~$35B.
Despite these dazzling valuation figures, I am increasingly convinced that Instant Delivery, and broadly speaking Grocery Delivery, most likely will NOT work in the U.S. Today’s valuation levels might later be seen as high-water marks, causing permanent capital losses to late coming investors.
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Why I am still Bullish on DoorDash
[I own DoorDash stocks. This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]
This is a follow-up piece to my previous post on DoorDash (Sep 2021, link here).
I liquidated my previous DoorDash position in early- and mid- November 2021. Since then, I have been buying DoorDash again.
Summary
DoorDash is the No.1 Food Delivery company in the U.S. Controlling over 50% of the U.S. Food Delivery market, DoorDash has the largest delivery network, the highest work density, and the lowest delivery cost. It is a powerful network that can solve a variety of use cases, ranging from 10-min delivery to 1-day delivery.
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Key Learnings from 2021
The Study of History Matters for Successful Investing
I truly believe it. I have heard, time and again, from the world’s top investors — the No.1 thing for investing is studying history. I am very lucky, because I have a passion for studying history.
Why is history important? It is because documented history is perhaps the only reliable source of knowledge for developing an accurate understanding of the present. Said differently: If we want to understand what is going on now, we must understand history.
To me, studying history is a process of acquiring two things at once: 1) great ideas from great minds, and 2) materials for me to form new ideas. Both are key ingredients that feed my thinking process, allowing me to see what drives time forward — i.e., what makes the world move. From there, I can acquire a more accurate understanding of the present and I can structure a sensible framework to anticipate what might happen in the future.
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Why I Love Studying History
For a long time, I could not really say why I love studying history. I have no formal background in history nor liberal arts. I have been intrigued by history since I was young. Then, when I was a business student at Yale University, I spent a considerable amount of time studying at Yale’s Department of History.
I think now I may have some answers.
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Overseas–Listed Chinese Stocks — A market bottom between now and early 2022(?)
Update on KWEB: The prediction I made in July 2021, titled “Two Hours of Almost ‘Free’ Money,” has been proven to be correct by the market. KWEB reached $55 a share on September 7, 2021.
Full disclosure: I own KWEB the ETF. This article is NOT investment advice. Do your own due diligence.
I am increasingly convinced that the price collapse of overseas–listed Chinese stocks is probably coming to an end very soon. Take KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) as a market proxy for overseas–listed Chinese stocks. I believe the bottom is likely to appear between now and early 2022.
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A Few Historical Perspectives From The 19th Century
If most of the world that we know today was indeed created in the 20th century, having some knowledge about what happened right before — i.e., during the 19th century — would be helpful.
Recently, I scanned through three books (more precisely, I read a few chapters of each book). They all focus on 19th century matters, ranging from economic growth to scientific developments.
- Osterhammel, Jürgen. The Transformation of the World. Princeton University Press.
- Maier, Charles. Leviathan 2.0: Inventing Modern Statehood. Harvard University Press.
- Frieden, Jeffry. Global Capitalism. W. W. Norton & Company.
Reading history helps us understand what makes history move. It also helps us gain foresight into what can happen next in our own times.
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Why I am bullish on DoorDash
[Full disclosure: I own DoorDash stocks. This is NOT investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]
I have been bullish on DoorDash since early 2021. Finally, I got some time to share my thoughts here on the blog. Because it is a short blog piece, I only have space to highlight a few key topics.
Bullish views
In many Asian countries, food delivery apps have fundamentally changed how people eat. These apps are convenient and affordable. In some cities, food delivery apps have achieved “cost parity,” meaning paying for food deliveries costs about the same as buying ingredients and cooking them at home! Bullish investors bet food delivery’s success in Asia can be replicated in the U.S.
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