[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash published its 2025 Q1 results earlier this month. Similar to the prior few quarters, DoorDash’s GOV exceeded almost all sell-side estimates and its AEBITDA landed within the range of its own guidance. The business continues to enjoy strong momentum, as reflected in its retention, order frequency, and market share. Thanks to the fundamentally human nature of “we have to eat” and “we like convenience,” DoorDash’s business so far has not been impacted by the ever-shifting macro environment.

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[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash released its 2024 Q4 results last week. Total Orders grew by 19% YoY and Marketplace GOV grew by 21% YoY. Its reported GOV topped almost all sell-side estimates while its reported Adjusted EBITDA landed within its own guided range.

Changing Perspective

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[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash announced its 2024 Q3 financial results a few days ago. Total orders, GOV and revenue grew by 18%, 19%, and 25% on a year-on-year basis, respectively. The company’s top line growth was so strong that its reported GOV number was above almost all sell-side estimates (source: Refinitiv; all sell-side estimates in this article come from Refinitiv).

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[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

Back in early 2022, I wrote and predicted that Instant Delivery companies “most likely will NOT work” (link). Today, most Instant Delivery companies have folded: Fridge No More (shut down); Buyk (bankruptcy); 1520 (shut down); Gorillas(acquired). Those still operating are facing significant challenges: JOKR (exited the U.S. market); Getir (reportedly in financial struggle); Flink (reportedly trying to sell itself); Gopuff (reportedly burned ~$400M in 2023).

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[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash recently released its 2024 Q2 financial results. Its top line is growing at a clip of approximately 20% YoY with the bottom line rapidly approaching the point of GAAP profitability breakeven. User order frequency is at an all-time high and still growing; newer cohorts of users are ordering as frequently as the “pandemic” cohorts, if not more frequently. DoorDash’s strong operational results fly in the face of the general environment where consumer spending seems to have somewhat weakened.

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[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash had a solid first quarter, growing its top line by over 20% year on year, gaining market share across all business lines, across almost all country markets. In terms of the company’s bottom line, “U.S. restaurant” has been the cash cow for a long while and “U.S. new verticals” and “international markets” are still in the red — and the unit economics of all these three business lines continue to improve.

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[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash reported its 2023 Q4 earnings in mid-February. The company grew its Total Orders by 23% YoY and its Gross Order Value (GOV) by 22% YoY. Its adjusted EBITDA has more than tripled versus a year ago. Its Free Cash Flow (FCF) continues to grow; after deducting stock-based compensation expenses, the “adjusted” FCF is positive and growing.

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[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash announced its 2023 Q3 results a few weeks ago. Growth is solid and profitability is rising. Management team said on the earnings call that “every line of business has accelerated in growth and improved in its unit economics.”

In GAAP terms, net loss has shrunken to ($75M) for the quarter. In cash terms, annualizing this quarter’s number, DoorDash is now generating well over $1B of Free Cash Flow a year.

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