I predicted negative oil prices in April 2020 — and from the data I have seen I was one of only a handful of investors to do so. Some people reached out to me and asked whether I am a dedicated short seller or a specialist in commodities or futures trading. My answer is NO!

I did not make that negative-oil prediction because I wanted to short something, nor because I wanted to do something global macro. I made that prediction because I study fundamentals. I think in “first principles,” which leads me to focus on the fundamental truth of a thing — and in this case, the supply and demand of crude oil, a study which eventually led me to conclude there would be a severe surplus of oil supply and the world would run out of storage space for crude oil, thus we would see negative oil prices.

If one were to compile a list of the most abused words in finance and investing, “differentiation” (or “being differentiated”) will certainly occupy a top place in that list. Most money managers tell clients that their investment processes are differentiated; most businesses claim their products or services are differentiated. It has now become unusual if a business does not sprinkle its client-facing talks with the word “differentiation.”

Wait… common sense tells us a business can only be run in a finite number of ways… if most players in a particular business claim themselves to be differentiated… That is an oxymoron!

For people who invest, their investment actions are usually guided by a philosophy of which investors themselves are consciously or unconsciously aware. It is like asking yourself to list out all items that are in your wallet now; unless you take a pause, open your wallet, one is usually not fully aware of what is in there. Similarly, it is a tall task to give a full answer to one’s investment philosophy. So, this blog piece is not meant to be a complete account, nor final or conclusive. As time goes by, as I age and gain more experience, I will likely abandon some beliefs that are stated below and form some that are new.

I first traded stocks when I was under 20 — I bought an A-share company listed in Shenzhen. Since then, I have invested in A-shares, Hong Kong–listed stocks, U.S. stocks, bonds, funds, real estates and other types of assets and financial contracts.