How I Successfully Predicted Negative Oil Prices and What I Learned From It

On April 19, 2020, I became convinced that over the next two days, prices of crude oil would drop below $0.  The next day, April 20, oil opened at $17.73 a barrel and closed the day at negative -$37.63 a barrel.

To help us appreciate the magnitude of that epic collapse, the oil price chart below showing the past 25 years would be helpful.  See that big plunge?

Read More »

Differentiation Is Not A Moat

If one were to compile a list of the most abused words in finance and investing, “differentiation” (or “being differentiated”) will certainly occupy a top place in that list. Most money managers tell clients that their investment processes are differentiated; most businesses claim their products or services are differentiated. It has now become unusual if a business does not sprinkle its client-facing talks with the word “differentiation.”

Wait… common sense tells us a business can only be run in a finite number of ways… if most players in a particular business claim themselves to be differentiated… That is an oxymoron!

Read More »

Some Thoughts on My Investment Philosophy

For people who invest, their investment actions are usually guided by a philosophy of which investors themselves are consciously or unconsciously aware. It is like asking yourself to list out all items that are in your wallet now; unless you take a pause, open your wallet, one is usually not fully aware of what is in there. Similarly, it is a tall task to give a full answer to one’s investment philosophy. So, this blog piece is not meant to be a complete account, nor final or conclusive. As time goes by, as I age and gain more experience, I will likely abandon some beliefs that are stated below and form some that are new.

I first traded stocks when I was under 20 — I bought an A-share company listed in Shenzhen. Since then, I have invested in A-shares, Hong Kong–listed stocks, U.S. stocks, bonds, funds, real estates and other types of assets and financial contracts.

Read More »

The Power of Writing & Reading

[The body of this piece was written by me in December 2018]

When I was still living with my parents, I used to read almost all the newspapers and magazines my parents subscribed.  In college, I served a leadership role with the university’s reading club.  Later at Yale University, forced by the teaching environment and enlightened by some elective courses that I chose to take, I discovered that I have a real passion for not only reading but also writing.

As I write more and more, gradually, I started to realize that writing has some kind of “superpower” with it.  It is intangible and difficult to describe.  But let me make an attempt here.

Read More »

Searching for the Path to Professional Excellence

As an MBA student, I admire successful bankers, consultants and asset managers and more importantly I admire the organizations that they lead. I hope that one day I will do something as great as they have. Yet sometimes I struggle to understand what it takes to be there – why are these organizations so successful? What are the traits that they uniquely possess? How have they managed their business and their people? Or simply put, how have these organizations achieved “Professional Excellence”?

Read More »