[I own DoorDash stocks and I may change my opinion anytime. This is not investment advice and please do your own due diligence.]

Back in early 2022, I wrote and predicted that Instant Delivery companies “most likely will NOT work” (link). Today, most Instant Delivery companies have folded: Fridge No More (shut down); Buyk (bankruptcy); 1520 (shut down); Gorillas(acquired). Those still operating are facing significant challenges: JOKR (exited the U.S. market); Getir (reportedly in financial struggle); Flink (reportedly trying to sell itself); Gopuff (reportedly burned ~$400M in 2023).

I also wrote in early 2022 that “If DoorDash’s valuation is ‘correct,’ Instacart should be worth only $9B–$15B” (link). Instacart was once valued at $39B. Today, Instacart has become a publicly traded company and its market cap is $9B.

Now, allow me to be “overconfident” and take a new shot.

If any one of the following predictions becomes true, I consider myself as having done enough homework on the subjects.

In the coming three years, I predict those seemingly unlikely scenarios may turn out to be true:

• DoorDash will join the S&P 500 Index.
• Uber’s CEO Dara Khosrowshahi will leave the job.
• Lyft will enter into a meaningful partnership with a larger company or be outright acquired.
• Instacart will fail to achieve its publicly stated long-term advertising revenue target (i.e., “Advertising & Other Revenue” as a % of GTV to reach 4% to 5%).
• Delivery Hero’s CEO Niklas Östberg will leave the job.

If more than one of the above becomes true, I am just lucky!

Disclaimer: Jackson Zhu (the “Author”), individually or through one or more entities controlled by him, holds long positions in the securities of and derivatives associated with DOORDASH, INC. (the “Company”) described herein and stands to benefit from an increase in the price of the common stock of the Company. Following the publication of this post, the Author intends to continue transacting in the Company’s securities, and may become long, short, or neutral on the Company’s securities. As such, the Author may change his view on the analysis presented as of any date following the date of initial publication. Likewise, the discussion contained here is not designed to be applicable to the specific circumstances of any particular reader, and you should consult with your own advisers to determine if any investment ideas discussed here are appropriate for your circumstances. The Author has obtained all information herein from sources believed to be accurate and reliable. However, such information is presented “as is,” without warranty of any kind, whether express or implied. The Author makes no representation, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of any such information or with regard to the results to be obtained from its use. All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice, and the Author will not undertake to update this publication or any information contained herein. Please read our full disclaimer at “jacksonzhu.com/about/.”