Why Did DoorDash’s Stock Surge?

[I own DoorDash stocks. This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]

DoorDash is my largest position. In early November 2021, I completely liquidated my DoorDash holdings (see my earlier post). Since then, I have been accumulating DoorDash stocks, buying aggressively in very recent weeks. My cost basis is less than half of the price that I sold DoorDash last November. As I wrote in my year end summary for 2021 (link), “A low cost basis is the mathematical foundation for achieving a high IRR.” In my investing, I intend to achieve a high IRR. Therefore, a low cost basis matters.

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Instant Delivery: Challenges That Cannot Be Overcome

[This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]

Instant Delivery is in overdrive. Billions of VC money has been poured into this space since 2020. Unicorns are made, even with less than one year of business history. Some companies are aspiring for a valuation of $40B! As a reference, Uber is trading at ~$70B and DoorDash is at ~$35B.

Despite these dazzling valuation figures, I am increasingly convinced that Instant Delivery, and broadly speaking Grocery Delivery, most likely will NOT work in the U.S. Today’s valuation levels might later be seen as high-water marks, causing permanent capital losses to late coming investors.

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Why I am still Bullish on DoorDash

[I own DoorDash stocks. This is not investment advice. Do your own due diligence.]

This is a follow-up piece to my previous post on DoorDash (Sep 2021, link here).

I liquidated my previous DoorDash position in early- and mid- November 2021. Since then, I have been buying DoorDash again.

Summary

DoorDash is the No.1 Food Delivery company in the U.S. Controlling over 50% of the U.S. Food Delivery market, DoorDash has the largest delivery network, the highest work density, and the lowest delivery cost. It is a powerful network that can solve a variety of use cases, ranging from 10-min delivery to 1-day delivery.

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